Summer 2026 Market Update

What’s Different About Your Investment Portfolio?

June was a choppy month, with investors pulling money out of expensive technology and AI names and moving it into steadier, defensive parts of the market. The Nasdaq fell sharply late in the month, while sectors like healthcare, utilities, consumer staples, and real estate posted strong gains as investors sought safety amid stubborn 4%+ inflation and the U.S. Fed’s signal that interest rates will stay higher for longer.

Our low-volatility allocations in both Canada and the U.S. are built to hold exactly those steadier, defensive companies, so they captured most of the upside from that rotation while avoiding the worst of the tech pullback. It’s a good example of these investments doing what they’re designed to do – smoothing out the ride and quietly adding return when the broader market gets bumpy.  Relative to their respective indices, the Canadian and U.S. low vol allocations outperformed by roughly 4.5% and 5%.

Our fixed income holdings are essentially flat year-to-date, and the reason is straightforward: inflation expectations have been reset higher. The oil price shock stemming from the war in Iran pushed energy costs back into the inflation picture just as headline inflation climbed above 4% for the first time in nearly three years, prompting the Fed to signal that interest rates will stay higher for longer.  When rates are expected to stay elevated, bond prices stall – and that’s exactly what we’ve seen across the fixed income market this year.

We continue to hold fixed income deliberately, not for its return in a year like this, but for the role it plays when markets turn. With equity markets being driven higher by AI enthusiasm and valuations stretching in a handful of names, the risk of a sharp pullback grows. Fixed income is our capital protector in that scenario – the ballast that steadies portfolios when the euphoria fades and gives us the flexibility to redeploy into equities at better prices. A flat year from bonds isn’t a drag on the strategy; it’s insurance we’re glad to own.

As you enjoy the summer – whether on the lake, in the mountains, or at the Calgary Stampede – remember that your investment strategy is built for seasons like this.  Markets may be noisy, but your plan is grounded in discipline, diversification, and long-term thinking.  We’ll continue monitoring opportunities and risks so you can focus on enjoying the months ahead.

Alberta’s Pipeline Reset

The U.S. Administration has created tariff pressure, signaling a shift toward American energy independence, and creating a more favorable regulatory climate south of the border.  This acted as a catalyst for Canada to look in another direction for trading partners.

Closer to home, Alberta’s pipeline momentum has strengthened meaningfully in the last several months.  There have been multiple high‑impact initiatives advancing in ways that reinforce long‑term market access and midstream stability. Three projects in particular stand out:

• West Coast Pipeline: Alberta and Ottawa advanced a new proposal along the Trans Mountain corridor to expand access to Asian markets, supported by a public–private partnership model and enhanced Indigenous equity‑participation pathways.
• Bitumen Pipeline MOU: The province and federal government are close to finalizing an agreement that aligns carbon policy, CCS commitments, and streamlined regulatory reviews – a coordinated framework that improves certainty for future major projects.
• Alberta–Ontario Pipeline: A newly announced corridor from Hardisty to Sarnia would strengthen supply security for Ontario refineries, reduce reliance on imports, and broaden Alberta’s domestic market reach.

Collectively, these developments reinforce Alberta’s long‑term energy trajectory and provide constructive signals for investors seeking diversified, resilient exposure to Canada’s energy sector.

CUSMA Clarity

The U.S. has recently stated that they did not agree to renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement (CUSMA), in its current form.   However, this doesn’t mean that the agreement expired!  CUSMA remains fully in force until 2036.  

What it does mean is that their decision has created a decade of annual reviews and added uncertainty for businesses.  Nothing changes immediately though – tariffs, market access, and dispute rules all stay intact.  However, companies should expect more volatility as negotiations increasingly focus on autos, steel and aluminum, agriculture, labor enforcement, and China‑related supply chains. Canada and Mexico continue to support long‑term stability, while the U.S. is signaling it wants adjustments before committing to an extension.  As this evolves, it’s important for clients to stay aware of sector‑specific developments and confirm updates with trusted government or news sources.

Donor-Advised Fund (DAF) – Is It a Tool for You?

Do you anticipate large capital gains this year?  Possibly next year? 

A donor‑advised fund (DAF) is a tax‑efficient charitable giving vehicle that allows you to make a contribution today, receive an immediate tax receipt, and then recommend grants to charities over time.

For investors with significant unrealized capital gains, a DAF can be especially powerful: donating appreciated securities directly to a DAF eliminates the capital gains tax that would otherwise be triggered on sale, while still providing a charitable tax credit for the full fair market value. This creates a double benefit – reducing the tax impact of a strong market year and converting a taxable event into long‑term philanthropic capital that grows tax‑free inside the DAF. It’s a flexible way to smooth out high‑income years, support causes you care about and enhance overall tax efficiency without needing to choose specific charities right away.